Macky Sall on course to win the February 2019 elections in the first round. The survey we conducted one month before the 2019 Senegalese presidential elections reveals that incumbent President Macky Sall has increased his advantage over rival contenders and is expected to win in the first round by a wide margin for a second term as president.

This survey was conducted following a ‘sponsorship’ (parrainage) procedure which saw the number of candidates reduced from 27 to a final list of 5. One of the clear outcomes of this process has been the strong drift of votes from eliminated candidates towards incumbent President Sall.

As the elections approach, voting patterns become clearer. Ousmane Sonko and Idrissa Seck are in a tight race for the second place, each with a little bit over 6% of the votes. The two last candidates, Issa Sall (of the PUR party) and Madické Niang, who started his own movement after the rupture with PDS, each get around 4% of the votes.

Support for President Macky Sall is strong along all demographics. Nonetheless, the results of the survey provide some interesting insights. The main trends are identified as follows: President Sall still has very strong support from rural and middle-aged people; Ousmane Sonko has a strong support base in urban populations and especially with youth and women; The relative popularity of Idrissa Seck is mostly among the older voters.

Newcomer Ousmane Sonko, has a close lead over the older and more experienced Idrissa Seck, who lost some votes over the last months.

This report presents the results of an opinion poll conducted 30 days before election day on a sample population of 2,900 adults of voting age from the 14 administrative regions of Senegal.